It’s been hard being a gold bug these last 7 years. We’ve been mocked and discounted as preppers who live in a fantasy world where disaster awaits the global financial system at every turn. We’ve been called stopped clocks and permabears, with some justification. By the numbers we’ve been wrong, at least since 2011. In the end, numbers are all that matter in this business.
Precious metals have been watching the dollar and interest rates over recent months, and they are getting conflicting signals. The dollar index tanked throughout 2017, and at the start of 2018, the selling continued. The recent rise in the price of precious metals from the middle of December has been a reflection of the diving value of the dollar against other world currencies, particularly the euro.
Early in 2017, Donald Trump was worried the dollar was getting too strong. At the start of 2018, he has nothing to worry about. This year, the US dollar recorded an annual decline for the first time in five years. The ICE dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six other currencies, fell nearly 10% in 2017. That’s biggest annual decline since 2003 when the US dollar fell almost 15%.
Gold futures gained Tuesday to mark the highest finish since early September, even as a closely watched U.S. dollar index tried to end its streak of declines. “The near-term trend remains higher for gold, and that is in line with inflation taking hold,” said analysts at the Sevens Report. “That, in turn, is weighing on real interest rates, which is bullish for gold.”
Gold hit its highest since late September on Tuesday, extending a year-end rally that saw the metal rise 4.4 percent in the last three weeks of 2017, as a further retreat in the dollar drove prices above $1,310 an ounce. Palladium prices meanwhile bounced to a new 17-year high, within $5 of their all-time peak, as tightening emissions controls and a swing away from diesel cars in Europe fueled fears of a shortage of the…
Gold held near a two-month low on Wednesday, under pressure from an advancing dollar ahead of a vote on the U.S. tax reform plan, but a potential government shutdown lent support to prices. Spot gold had inched 0.1 percent lower to $1,264.260 an ounce by 14:20 GMT after it hit its weakest since Oct. 6 in the previous session.
President Donald Trump has thrown gold’s true believers a lifeline. Trump’s inflammatory statements and tweets on some of the most sensitive areas of foreign policy — notably North Korea and Iran — have raised risk dramatically on the international stage. And by that I mean the risk of war, even nuclear war.
Gold led the charge to recent highs. A correction where the weak get weaker and the strong stay strong. Geopolitics favor precious metals. The path of least resistance for the dollar is supportive for the sector. The long-term trends support buying dips; hold your nose and ignore the naysayers. In their heyday of acceptance and utility, governments employed gold and silver as comfort for their paper currencies. While countries around the world abandoned their policies…
The Russian central bank opened its first overseas office in Beijing on March 14, marking a step forward in forging a Beijing-Moscow alliance to bypass the US dollar in the global monetary system, and to phase-in a gold-backed standard of trade. According to the South China Morning Post the new office was part of agreements made between the two neighbors “to seek stronger economic ties” since the West brought in sanctions against Russia over the…
Gold futures rose on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar retreated, giving dollar-pegged commodities a modest lift in early trade. December gold was $5.80, or 0.5%, higher at $1,270.50 an ounce, with the contract looking at back-to-back gains after Monday’s tepid rise.